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INTERMEDIATE-2
BRIDGE
LESSON
15
LOSING
TRICK COUNT
Accurate bidding is one of
the secrets to success in the game of bridge.
The Losing Trick Count (LTC) method of hand evaluation
greatly increases one’s ability to more accurately place any contract. The LTC is a totally different method which
augments the HCP count method of assessing the number of tricks a partnership
is likely to win. Take the following
as an example: Most players, following
a 4 Spade rebid by opening partner would pass out this cold 6S, 25 HCP hand.
Opener
(Partner) Responder
(You)
1D 1S
4S ??
AQJX
K10XXXX
XX X
AKJXX XX
KX AXXX
One must not envisage the LTC as replacing point count. It
is used in coordination with point count in order to elicit a more
accurate guide as to the potential of the partnership’s combined holding. When considering using the LTC, one must consider the following
constraints:
1)
It
is not applicable when
considering a No Trump Contract.
2)
It
is to be used only after a
trump fit has been established.
3)
It
is quite unsuitable for misfit hands where no fit exists.
The LTC
Formula
1) Count your losers
2) Add Partner’s losers
3) Deduct this total from 24
4) The answer is the number of
tricks a partnership can expect to win
Opener(Partner) Opponent #2 Responder(You) Opponent #1
P P
1S 1NT
P P
2H P 3H
P
4H
AKXXX X
AKXX (6 Losers) JXXXXX (8 Losers)
XX QXXXX
XX X
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The LTC does not
guarantee that one will, in fact, make the number of anticipated tricks. It represents the number of tricks one will
win most of the time assuming the suits break normally, and half of one’s
potential finesses work. Calculations
within the LTC require two (2)
stages. They are as follows:
1.
CALCULATING YOUR LOSERS
1)
Count
losers only in the first three cards
of each suit. The 4th, 5th,
6th, etc. cards in any suit are taken as winners.
2)
With
three or more cards in any suit, count the A,K, and Q as a winners; anything
lower as a loser.
3)
With
two cards in any suit, count the A and K as winners; anything lower is a loser.
4)
With
one card in any suit, count the A as a winner; anything lower is a loser.
5)
There are never more than
three losers in any suit. There are never more losers
in a suit than the number of cards held within that suit.
6)
An unguarded Q (Ex: QXX) is considered as one-half a loser; a guarded
or supported Q (Ex: QJX or AQX or KQX)
is not counted as a loser; i.e., any Queen should be counted as a winner if it
is supported by another honor.
7)
As ones HCP’s increase, the
losers decrease. As ones HCP’s decrease, the
losers increase.
8)
The
more unbalanced the hand, the fewer the losers. The more balanced the hand, the more the losers.
2. ASSESSING
PARTNER’S LOSERS
1)
Partner’s
losers may be determined through knowledge of
partner’s strength as revealed through the bidding.
If you can tell how strong
partner’s hand is, one can calculate his/her losers.
The basis is that a minimum opening hand is equivalent to
seven (7) losers.
2)
A
simple enumeration of partner’s
losers based upon strength would be:
a)
Well
below a sound opening bid, support for
your opening bid with
6-10 HCP’s, a constructive raise with 8-9 HCP’s = 9
Losers.
b)
Just
below a normal opening with10-12 HCP’s,
a limit raise with
10-11 HCP’s, A weak 2-bid = 8 Losers.
c)
A
sound minimum opening bid with 13-15 HCP’s,
a take-out double
= 7 Losers.
d)
A
strong opening bid with16-18 HCP’s, An
opening 1NT with 15-17 HCP’s = 6 Losers.
e)
A
very strong opening bid evidenced by a jump-shift rebid holding 19-21 HCP’s = 5 Losers.
f)
An
opening strong “2C” holding 22+ HCP’s = 4
Losers.
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Why deduct the total losers between both hands from
24? Since the maximum
number
of losers you count in any one suit is three (3); and since there are as many
as four (4) suits in each hand, partner’s and yours; 3x4x2=24. The LTC
operates by deducting the actual loses from the maximum possible total. Therefore:
LTC = The maximum
possible losers (24) - Actual losers = Tricks Expected.
If
partner opens and your hand has seven (7) losers, game is likely if a fit can
be found. If partner opens and you
have five (5) losers, slam potential exists if a trump fit is found.
The above is a broad overlook at the LTC. It is based upon a
generalized raw count as indicated in the above-listed reference examples. Adjustments must be made in order to be
even more accurate; such as adjustments and refinements to super-trump
fits, the quality of trump support,
presence or absence of controls and cover-cards, just to name a few. A furtherance of understanding of the LTC can be achieved by reading Ron
Klinger’s “the Modern Losing Trick Count”, and Marty Bergen’s “Points
Schmoints”.
Sample
Hands
(1)
(2) (3)
K108643 AQ75 AQ876 K952 AQ876 K952
7 106 73 8642
973 Q86
43 AKJ62 AQJ42
76 AQJ K76
A842 K9 6 A93 65 KJ4
1D,1S,4S,6S 1S,2S,4S 1S,2S,P
(4)
(5) (6)
AQ852 K7643 K864 AQ973 AXXXXX KQX
AQ2 8 K4 A6 XX AKXX
865 72 AJ83 2 X AXXX
98 A7432 754 AK62 XXXX XX
1S,4S
P,1S,3S,6S
1NT,”2H”,2S,3S,4S
(7)
KJ72 A865
K7 J54
Q103 J72
A983 KQ2
1C,1S,2S,P