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INTERMEDIATE-2 BRIDGE

 

LESSON 15

 

LOSING TRICK COUNT

 

       Accurate bidding is one of the secrets to success in the game of bridge.  The Losing Trick Count (LTC) method of hand evaluation greatly increases one’s ability to more accurately place any contract.   The LTC is a totally different method which augments the HCP count method of assessing the number of tricks a partnership is likely to win.   Take the following as an example:   Most players, following a 4 Spade rebid by opening partner would pass out this cold 6S, 25 HCP hand.

 

            Opener (Partner)           Responder (You)

              1D                           1S

              4S                           ??

 

 

             AQJX                        K10XXXX

             XX                          X

             AKJXX                       XX

             KX                          AXXX

 

 

       One must not envisage the LTC as replacing point count.  It is used in coordination with point count in order to elicit a more accurate guide as to the potential of the partnership’s combined holding.  When considering using the LTC, one must consider the following constraints:

 

1)     It is not applicable when considering a No Trump Contract.

2)     It is to be used only after a trump fit has been established.

3)     It is quite unsuitable for misfit hands where no fit exists.

 

 

The LTC Formula

 

1)     Count your losers

2)     Add Partner’s losers

3)     Deduct this total from 24

4)     The answer is the number of tricks a partnership can expect to win

                  

     Opener(Partner)   Opponent #2       Responder(You)     Opponent #1

                                             P                  P

       1S                 1NT                P                  P

       2H                  P                 3H                 P

       4H

 

             AKXXX                          X

             AKXX   (6 Losers)              JXXXXX  (8 Losers)

             XX                             QXXXX

             XX                             X

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       The LTC does not guarantee that one will, in fact, make the number of anticipated tricks.   It represents the number of tricks one will win most of the time assuming the suits break normally, and half of one’s potential finesses work.  Calculations within the LTC require two (2) stages.  They are as follows:

 

1. CALCULATING  YOUR  LOSERS

 

1)     Count losers only in the first three cards of each suit.  The 4th, 5th, 6th, etc. cards in any suit are taken as winners.

2)     With three or more cards in any suit, count the A,K, and Q as a winners; anything lower as a loser.

3)     With two cards in any suit, count the A and K as winners; anything lower is a loser.

4)     With one card in any suit, count the A as a winner; anything lower is a loser.

5)     There are never more than three losers in any suit.  There are never more losers in a suit than the number of cards held within that suit.

6)     An unguarded Q (Ex: QXX) is considered as one-half a loser; a guarded or supported Q (Ex: QJX or AQX  or KQX) is not counted as a loser; i.e., any Queen should be counted as a winner if it is supported by another honor.

7)     As ones HCP’s increase, the losers decrease.  As ones HCP’s decrease, the losers increase.

8)     The more unbalanced the hand, the fewer the losers.  The more balanced the hand, the more the losers.

 

 

2. ASSESSING  PARTNER’S  LOSERS

 

1)     Partner’s losers may be determined through knowledge of  partner’s strength as revealed through the bidding.

If you can tell how strong partner’s hand is, one can calculate his/her losers.  

The basis is that  a minimum opening hand is equivalent to seven (7) losers.

 

2)     A simple enumeration of partner’s losers based upon strength would be:

a)     Well below a sound opening bid,  support for your opening bid with

6-10 HCP’s,  a constructive raise with 8-9 HCP’s  = 9 Losers.

b)     Just below a normal opening with10-12 HCP’s,  a limit raise with

      10-11 HCP’s,  A weak 2-bid  = 8 Losers.

c)     A sound minimum opening bid with 13-15 HCP’s,  a take-out double

= 7 Losers.

d)     A strong opening bid with16-18 HCP’s,  An opening 1NT with 15-17 HCP’s = 6 Losers.

e)     A very strong opening bid evidenced by a jump-shift rebid holding 19-21 HCP’s = 5 Losers.

f)       An opening strong “2C” holding 22+ HCP’s = 4 Losers.

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Why deduct the total losers between both hands from 24?   Since the maximum

number of losers you count in any one suit is three (3); and since there are as many as four (4) suits in each hand, partner’s and yours; 3x4x2=24.   The LTC operates by deducting the actual loses from the maximum possible total.   Therefore:

 

   LTC = The maximum possible losers (24) - Actual losers = Tricks Expected.

 

    If partner opens and your hand has seven (7) losers, game is likely if a fit can be found.   If partner opens and you have five (5) losers, slam potential exists if a trump fit is found.

 

       The above is a broad overlook at the LTC.  It is based upon a generalized raw count as indicated in the above-listed reference examples.   Adjustments must be made in order to be even more accurate; such as adjustments and refinements to super-trump fits,  the quality of trump support, presence or absence of controls and cover-cards, just to name a few.   A furtherance of understanding of the LTC can be achieved by reading Ron Klinger’s “the Modern Losing Trick Count”, and Marty Bergen’s “Points Schmoints”.

 

 

Sample Hands

 

 

        (1)                         (2)                     (3)

 K108643      AQ75           AQ876       K952        AQ876        K952

 7            106                       73          8642        973          Q86

 43           AKJ62          AQJ42       76          AQJ          K76

 A842         K9             6           A93         65           KJ4

 

   1D,1S,4S,6S                  1S,2S,4S                 1S,2S,P

 

 

 

 

        (4)                         (5)                     (6)

 AQ852        K7643          K864        AQ973       AXXXXX       KQX      

 AQ2          8              K4          A6          XX           AKXX

 865          72             AJ83        2           X            AXXX

 98           A7432          754         AK62        XXXX         XX

 

       1S,4S                    P,1S,3S,6S           1NT,”2H”,2S,3S,4S

 

 

 

 

                                    (7)                         

                             KJ72         A865          

                             K7           J54

                             Q103         J72

                             A983         KQ2

 

                                1C,1S,2S,P